According to FLW writer Jamie Rooke, Barnsley can maintain this encouraging pace for the remainder of the campaign.
Barnsley weren’t far off returning to the Championship last season.
Their 86-point haul would have meant more if it weren’t for the excellence of the three League One teams that finished above them in 2022–23: Ipswich Town, Plymouth Argyle, and Sheffield Wednesday.
The subsequent loss of both Liam Kitching and Mads Andersen, a crucial defensive pairing, to Coventry City and Luton Town, respectively, as well as manager Michael Duff to Swansea City was a severe setback.
This hasn’t stopped them from regaining momentum and competing for promotions. Following Tuesday night’s 3-2 setback to Portsmouth, Neill Collins’ Barnsley are currently sixth in the standings.
The underlying numbers suggest that they are slightly fortunate to be where they are but here is why the Tykes will continue to be in and around the title battle as the season rolls on.
Despite the evidence, can Barnsley succeed in getting promoted?
Football fans disagree on the number of anticipated goals and assists.
While they shouldn’t serve as the primary basis of a discussion, they can give us greater insight into a team’s performance and what to anticipate from them moving forward.
Here, Barnsley is the team that is being closely watched, and they are overachieving in both xG and xGa.
With the exception of Luke Thomas joining Bristol Rovers, their attacking line has remained roughly the same and, if anything, improved.
Among the newcomers are Andy Dallas, Max Watters, and most recently Sam Cosgrove, who last year assisted Plymouth Argyle in winning League One.
Collins’ team currently has the fourth-best xG rate in the division (1.55 per 90), yet they score the most goals (2.25 per game) in the division. It must be acknowledged that the opening-day 7-0 thrashing of Port Vale, in which Devante Cole scored a hat-trick, makes the numbers appear more dramatic than they actually are.
Speaking of Cole, he represents one of the top scorers in English football’s third tier. He has never really found success in the Championship, but he scored 11 goals for Motherwell in the SPFL in the 2020–21 season, demonstrating his high level of skill in front of goal.
When you add the likes of Watters, Dallas, and Cosgrove in and around him, this becomes an elite attack that can continue on this run.
On the flip side, Barnsley’s xGa is 1.5 per 90, which again is the fourth highest in the league. Contrasting this with the fact that six teams have conceded more than their one goal per game shows again that the numbers are on their side.
Filling the void left behind by Andersen and Kitching was a major task, but they seem to have done a solid job of it, Maël de Gevigney joining from French side Nimes being at the fore of this.
The numbers may suggest that Barnsley are over performing, but they pass they eye test and the talent on display suggests that this will level out, and they are as good as their league position tells us.
Who do Barnsley play next?
Looking ahead to Barnsley’s upcoming games, they will be put to the test in the coming weeks.
They host 14th-placed Blackpool at Oakwell and then go to 19th-placed Northampton Town at Sixfields in two of their six remaining games.
On October 7, Barnsley will play host to both high-flying Exeter City and rival promotion contenders Bolton Wanderers in Devon. The Tykes’ credentials and, in fact, their capacity to defy the numbers will be put to the test in their matchup with the former, who are currently in second place and are only behind Portsmouth on goal differential.
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