Rest assured, Florida State supporters, that an undefeated Power 5 winner will not be disqualified from the College Football Playoff next season.
In the new 12-team CFP, the field will most likely feature the five highest-ranked conference champions as well as the next seven highest-ranked teams, implying that any club that does not win its league must have an exceptional resume to receive an at-large entry.
The strength of the schedule is still important, including the difficulty of the league opponents and the nonconference lineup. The new playoff format, combined with the jarring league reorganization, will alter how the committee perceives that metric this fall.
(If you need a refresher, here’s a preview of how the sport will look in fall.)
Texas vs. Georgia is a must-see clash in the SEC race. The rematch between CFP finalists Washington and Michigan is must-see television in the Big Ten conference. And the Arizona-Utah matchup will be significant for the Big 12 conference standings.
Every month, at least one game in each league will have an impact on what promises to be a historic Selection Day. Given the format changes, here’s a winter look at the 12 most significant games that will effect the 12-team playoff this fall:
1. Georgia at Texas, October 19 Last meeting: Texas 28, Georgia 21 (January 1, 2019).
Why it will matter to the committee: By excluding back-to-back national champion Georgia from the final top four in 2023, the committee underlined its opinion that prior accomplishments have no bearing on current standing. The Bulldogs only lost one game in 28—by three points to Alabama in the SEC title game—but fell from No. 1 to No. 6 on Selection Day because they did not win their conference title in a season filled with contenders who did. That’s why this trip to Texas will have a lasting impact on Selection Day. It will be considered a quality road win by the committee, and it will affect who might play in the SEC championship game. Georgia has gotten to the SEC championship game in recent years, in part because the SEC East hasn’t been the most difficult division in the league. With divisions eliminated, Georgia’s game against Texas is the first indication of how much more difficult its ascent will be in the new SEC.
2. Georgia at Alabama, September 28.
Last meeting: Alabama 27, Georgia 24 (December 2, 2023).
Why it matters to the committee: In addition to the significance of the league race and what may be another excellent road win against a ranked opponent for Georgia (see No. 1), it will also tell where Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer stands with the school in his first season since taking over for retiring legend Nick Saban. September will be a very difficult month for Georgia. The Bulldogs play two real road games (at Kentucky and Alabama) and a season-opening neutral-site game against Clemson.
This meeting could anticipate the SEC title game, which the two teams have played three times since 2018. If that’s the case, the loser of this game will have the opportunity to impress the selection committee by avenging a regular-season loss. That would also allow the loser of the SEC title game to claim a regular-season victory over the ultimate conference winners, assisting both teams in earning playoff bids, as happened in 2021.
3. Ohio State vs. Oregon on October 12
Last meeting: Oregon 35, Ohio State 28. (September 11, 2021)
Why it matters to the committee: Ohio State and Michigan are not the only Big Ten teams capable of winning the conference. The Ducks are good enough to capture a historic title this season, which might begin with a home win over the Buckeyes. This game is vital for both teams’ postseason aspirations, whether as at-large contenders or conference champions. Ohio State has seen both ends of the selection committee’s decision-making process, gaining a spot in the CFP despite not winning the Big Ten and being barred from participating. Last year, the Buckeyes defeated Notre Dame and Penn State, just as they did in 2022.
However, it was insufficient to secure a top-four finish without winning the Big Ten. The new approach provides more room for error, so even if Ohio State loses a key conference game, it can still receive an at-large berth. With the addition of Oregon to the Big Ten, Ohio State will have another chance to impress the selection committee with a road win over a ranked opponent. It will need it, as the nonconference schedule includes three consecutive home games against Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall.
4. Texas at Michigan, September 7.
Last meeting: Texas 38, Michigan 37 (January 1, 2005).
Why does it matter to the committee? Do you remember the first item on this list? If Texas loses at home to Georgia, defeating the defending national champions on the road will become even more important to the Longhorns’ playoff aspirations. You may expect a two-loss team in the 12-team field—if not this year, then eventually—because there is more room for mistake. It becomes hazardous, however, and the committee will continue to evaluate nonconference wins to determine which teams will compete for those at-large slots. If Texas does not win the SEC in its first season in the league, it will continue to face stiff competition from the rest of the conference (Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU, Oklahoma, etc.) for the remaining seats. A win at Michigan might go a long way toward distinguishing Texas from other contenders with lesser nonconference records. Texas and Michigan might win their respective conferences, so the victor of this game could eventually claim to the committee a nonconference win over a Power 5 champion, as Texas was able to accomplish in 2023 after defeating SEC champion Alabama.
5. Florida State vs. Notre Dame, November 9 The last encounter was on September 5, 2021, with Notre Dame winning 41-38.
Why it matters to the committee: As an independent, Notre Dame will never be eligible for an automatic bid to the 12-team playoff as a conference winner, nor will it receive a first-round bye as one of the top four seeds. The Irish will face less pressure to be unblemished, but schedule strength remains essential. If Notre Dame can defeat the eventual ACC champion, it will almost surely boost its chances of receiving an at-large invitation on Selection Day, while FSU should remain the league’s top contender. If the Seminoles do not win the ACC, defeating Notre Dame on the road—the nonconference win—might help FSU secure an at-large spot. These games can also be crucial for seeding and obtaining a first-round bye. If Florida State ends as an undefeated or one-loss ACC champion with a road win over a rated Notre Dame team, it could improve its seeding.
6. Michigan at Ohio State, November 30.
Last meeting: Michigan 30, Ohio State 24. (November 25, 2023)
Why it will matter to the committee: As important as this game has been, it may lose some of its significance in the selection committee meeting room as conference expansion has resulted in more notable games to help define the Big Ten’s top teams. What was once a November heavyweight clash between Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan in the Big Ten East has evolved into a more inclusive game without divisions. However, the game will continue to affect how the committee votes on Selection Day, and the stakes will be high for Ohio State coach Ryan Day, who has lost three straight against the rival Wolverines. In addition to bragging rights, a win is more important for Ohio State since the Buckeyes have fewer opportunities to impress the selection committee. Michigan’s schedule is full. Texas. USC. Washington. Oregon. Also, there’s the road trip to Columbus. The Wolverines avoid Penn State, but we’ve seen that show without Jim Harbaugh. Ohio State’s biggest opportunities to impress the committee will come against Oregon, Iowa, Penn State, and Michigan. If Ohio State loses to Oregon and Michigan and fails to win the Big Ten, their resume may be insufficient for the new CFP to qualify as a two-loss team that did not win its conference.
7. Oklahoma vs. Texas, Oct. 12 Last meeting: Oklahoma 34, Texas 30 (October 7, 2023).
Why it matters to the committee: The selection committee follows a system that includes head-to-head outcomes and conference titles, as we saw with Texas and Alabama last year. It could also play a role in this game if the records are comparable (which they were not last year). The Red River Rivalry is coming to the SEC, and it will have an impact on newcomers’ prospects of playing in the SEC Championship Game. The winner gains an advantage in the rankings, as well as bragging rights, and will also benefit from seeding. Remember, the four highest-ranked conference champions receive a first-round bye, and with only four Power 5 conferences remaining following the collapse of the Pac-12, the SEC winner will advance past the first round. In addition to Tulane in their nonconference schedule, the Sooners face Ole Miss, Alabama, and LSU in the second half of the season. A win over Texas would provide them with a much-needed margin for error, since if they do not win the SEC, they will need to beat some of those teams to secure an at-large spot. Texas, which has already met Michigan (see No. 4), will play Georgia the following week.
8. Ole Miss will face LSU on October 12th. The most recent matchup was on September 30, 2023, with Ole Miss winning 55-49.
Why it matters to the committee: If Ole Miss is going to take the next step under Lane Kiffin and make the CFP, as it appears to be doing, it needs to wow the committee with a statement road win over a ranked opponent, and this appears to be its best chance. The Rebels’ schedule is backloaded, beginning with their trip to Baton Rouge. They should be unbeaten going into that game—and may need to be, given that it kicks off a grueling schedule that includes Oklahoma, Arkansas, Georgia, and a trip to Florida—before finishing the regular season at home against Mississippi State. Ole Miss may have a difficult time impressing the committee if it goes 0-2 against LSU and Georgia. The Rebels’ nonconference opponents include Furman, Middle Tennessee, Wake Forest, and Georgia Southern. On the other hand, LSU opens the season against USC and will face UCLA, Alabama, and Oklahoma this fall. LSU will not have a weak schedule, but winning the SEC will be incredibly difficult. The game versus the Rebels will be LSU’s first true conference test.
9. Michigan at Washington, October 5.
Last meeting: Michigan 34, Washington 13 (January 8, 2024).
Why it matters to the committee: The national championship game earlier this month will have no bearing on the selection committee; just ask Georgia, which was left out of the 2023 top four despite one loss and back-to-back national titles. This will be important to the committee because of the consequences for the Big Ten championship game, the head-to-head matchup, and seeding for any candidates who do not win their league. These squads will also be very different from what fans remember from the national championship. Former Arizona coach Jedd Fisch has been chosen to manage Washington after DeBoer left for Alabama. Star players have left, including Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The Wolverines face a challenging schedule that includes Texas, USC, Oregon, and Ohio State. The strength of Michigan’s schedule will not be an issue, but winning the Big Ten again may be; thus, the team must find a strong road win, either at Washington or Ohio State. In theory, Washington should be unbeaten entering this game, considering it is unlikely to meet any rated opponents in the first five games. Washington needs this more than Michigan to impress the selection committee, because if the Huskies don’t win the Big Ten in their first season in the league—and they don’t beat Michigan at home—they will need to beat Iowa, USC, Penn State and Oregon to have a shot at an at-large spot.
10. Arizona at Utah (TBA)
Last meeting: Arizona 42, Utah 18. (November 18, 2023)
Why it matters to the committee: The selection committee will question both teams’ schedule strength, making it harder for them to secure an at-large bid. Winning the Big 12 will be key to their playoff chances. Without Texas and Oklahoma to contend with, Arizona and Utah have the opportunity to establish themselves as league leaders right away. The question is whether Arizona can sustain its upward trend without Fisch, who was hired in Washington. The answer could come fast, as Arizona plays at Kansas State on September 14. If Arizona falls to Utah, K-State might be its sole regular-season victory over a ranked opponent. If Arizona fails to win the Big 12, it will be severely harmed in its playoff aspirations, even as an at-large candidate. The same goes for Utah, which needs the committee to rank Big 12 opponents to improve its resume.
11. Boise State at Oregon, September 7.
Last meeting: Boise State 38, Oregon 28 (December 16, 2017).
Why it matters to the committee: The significance of the 12-team system for the Group of Five teams cannot be overstated. There is no longer significant pressure to schedule ranked Power 5 teams, defeat them, go undefeated with a conference title, and then hope everyone else loses. The top Group of 5 winner now has a definite playoff spot, and Boise State has a chance to win the Mountain West Conference with USC transfer quarterback Malachi Nelson, the top recruit in the 2023 class. The Broncos’ nonconference schedule is designed to impress the committee, featuring games against Oregon, Oregon State, and Washington State. That is due in part to a scheduling deal between the Pac-12’s two remaining teams and the Mountain West Conference. While Oregon State and Washington State cannot contend for the MWC crown, they can undoubtedly help those who can. If Boise State can pull off an upset at Oregon, the Broncos will have the committee’s attention before they ever meet for the first time.
12. LSU vs. USC on September 1 (Las Vegas).
Last meeting: LSU 23, USC 3 (1984).
Why it will matter to the committee: If these teams do not win their respective leagues and receive automatic bids, this is the type of nonconference victory that can impress the committee enough to earn an at-large spot. USC faces a challenging schedule in their first season in the Big Ten, including road trips to Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland, Washington, and UCLA. It also maintained its regular-season rivalry game with Notre Dame. Even if USC does not win the Big Ten, its schedule is impressive enough to impress the committee and earn an at-large bid, assuming it wins. LSU has a rigorous schedule, but the journey isn’t as strenuous. If the Tigers do not defeat USC, they will be under pressure to win a statement game in the SEC, preferably against Ole Miss, Alabama, or Oklahoma.
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