5 Questions with Buffalo Rumblings: How have the Bills changed since They last game see why

5 Questions with Buffalo Rumblings: How have the Bills changed since They last game see why

 

 

have already squared off once this season, meeting in Week 7 at Gillette Stadium. Since that surprising 29-25 Patriots win, however, a lot has changed for both teams.

To get a better understanding of the Buffalo side of things heading into Week 17, we exchanged questions with Matt Byham of Pats Pulpit’s sister site Buffalo Rumblings — the SB Nation community for all things Bills.

Here is what we told Buffalo Rumblings about the Patriots, and below you find what Matt told us about the upcoming game.

1. How have the Bills changed since these last teams met?

In terms of offense, the single biggest change came when head coach Sean McDermott dismissed offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, naming Joe Brady the team’s interim offensive coordinator. Beyond that move, the Patriots are likely to have watched film of a group that’s more efficient passing the ball — though less reliant on quarterback Josh Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs doing everything every down. That said, there’s been a running Renaissance in Orchard Park, NY. Bills fans were vocally frustrated with the lack of runs by Josh Allen early in the season. He seemed to be someone other than who most knew him to be in the NFL. These days, the offense appears to be operating with more juice, and Allen is clearly back to his running ways, but doing so with a more judicious approach. Brady appears to have added back more designed runs for Allen — reintroducing the NFL to the dangerous dual-threat nature found in Josh Allen’s brand of football.

Of course, much of that running success is due to second-year running back James Cook’s ascendance as a dual-threat player out of the backfield. Cook has 532 total yards and three touchdowns on 84 touches in the four games since Joe Brady became the offensive play caller. The Bills now feature a pair of blue-chip dual threats on offense in Allen and Cook — and that has caused far more stress on defenses that are forced to play a more honest brand of football at times.

On defense, the Bills added free-agent defensive tackle Linval Joseph and made a trade with the Green Bay Packers (+1)
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at the deadline for cornerback Rasul Douglas. Joseph has been a revelation on the interior of the defense, filling in admirably for DaQuan Jones. The trade for Douglas was a coup of sorts, and his prowess as a zone-cover cornerback has allowed him to play elite coverage with Buffalo. In my opinion, bringing Douglas on board might be the single most important move made in-season for the Bills.

2. How has Ken Dorsey’s firing affected the offense?

I’ll try not to simply rephrase some of what I said above, but promoting Joe Brady from quarterbacks coach to OC had the biggest affect on the offense. But how has it affected things? Like anything in life, that might depend on who you ask. I’m not trying to be coy, rather imply that some things that seemed to work really well under Dorsey appear to have taken more of a sidecar role with interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady — at certain points, anyway. I know, that’s still vague. I’ll try to better explain.

In not-so-many words, the team seems to have implied that the change at OC had to do with how Dorsey was leading the offense. It wasn’t that Dorsey lacked in creativity nor ability, but there appeared to be situations where the relationship just wasn’t working the way intended, or at minimum as McDermott required. Josh Allen was observably out of sorts often in the weeks leading up to Dorsey being shown the door. Allen was the one who went to bat telling McDermott that’s the person he wanted as OC. It just didn’t work out, and the players appeared a bit stunned it happened in-season — especially following a loss to the Denver Broncos (-3.5)
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less conferences following the change players very clearly stood by Dorsey, and it’s fair to wonder if him losing the job lit a fire under their seats. The idea of motivation, and perhaps their belief (and my opinion only) that Dorsey was the sacrificial lamb.

The interesting thing is that, by all accounts, players feel the same way about Joe Brady — especially Josh Allen. What’s different with Brady is that he brings more experience to the table, having been an offensive coordinator in the college ranks and for a period with the Carolina Panthers (+4)

. Dorsey had never before been an offensive coordinator, and it’s possible (again, my opinion) the role was bigger than he was prepared for at this stage of his career.

Prior to Brady taking over play calling, there was a perceptible stress within the offense, and a fair bit of it looked to outsiders as an issue where quarterback Josh Allen was asked to do too much — and in ways that he either wasn’t most comfortable (under center) or most successful (less efficient out of shotgun, even though preferred). But what was available in spades under Dorsey this season was a near-surgical precision by Allen out of play action and a Madden-like connection between Allen and Diggs. (We’ll hit more on this matter in the next question.)

As mentioned above, in the four games since Joe Brady took over for Dorsey, there’s been a concerted effort to roll out a more diverse offense, featuring a potent run game. It’s been a bit of a revelation due to perceptions that Buffalo’s offensive line wasn’t known to favor maulers over pass-protectors, but it turns out they’re adept at both along many positions up front.

3. Stefon Diggs has been uncharacteristically quiet lately. What’s the deal?

A myriad of things, to be honest. First, we’ll round back to Joe Brady and his commitment to creating a more diverse, thorough offense that features a healthy dose of running the ball. That means less opportunities to target Diggs. Second, the most successful running back on the team has also developed into a bona fide dual threat as a receiver at any spot on the field. That also contributes to a reduction in targets for Diggs. Third, rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid came into his own as the featured tight end in 11-personnel looks while co-starting tight end Dawson Knox spent six weeks on Injured Reserve. Looks Kincaid’s way (and there were plenty) meant yet another challenge to Diggs’ production.

However, it’s not as though Diggs is lacking in targets. Most weeks he continues to lead all wide receivers in targets. But teams are playing a brand of defense that takes him out of many equations down the field. As such, Diggs has seen more underneath opportunities — and too many bubble screens that most of Bills Mafia would prefer exit the play book.

Perhaps the biggest reason for Diggs’ recent decline is due to no fault but his own: Drops have uncharacteristically plagued his game in too many contests. Due to all of these factors, the national 30,000-foot media coverage of Diggs continues to say he’s unhappy, and more. That’s just not true. He’s as complete a team player as you’ll find out of a wide receiver, and he enjoys the role he plays in pumping up his teammates nearly as much his featured role catching footballs. He’s annoyed when he’s continually asked about rumors of his being unhappy when he’s gone on record stating how much he enjoys the organization and hopes to retire a Bill.

No matter what outsiders say or any on-field adversity sent Diggs’ way, Allen continues to choose Diggs over every other pass catcher. That’s because even in the midst of struggle, Diggs always comes up huge in a game’s biggest moment.

4. The Bills have dealt with a lot of injuries on defense this season. How have they responded?

Remarkably well! There’s little doubt in my mind that they struggled to play complete games on defense during the mid-season slump. That includes in Week 7 against the Patriots. The team had recently lost key starters at leach level of defense (DT DaQuan Jones, LB Matt Milano, CB Tre’Davious White), and their replacements were some form of either maladjusted to 60 minutes of midseason football, or less-than-perfect fits operating as starters. But sometimes the best way to make a football player out of someone is to throw them into the gauntlet as a starter.

At this point, the Bills might have one of the most game-ready defensive rosters in the NFL, given how much their backups have played this season. There is concern with just how much more injury adversity the defense could weather. Every team deals with injuries — some far more than others, especially those teams that lose quarterbacks (other than the Cleveland Browns
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). But in the long term this season may have helped to create a stronger overall defense for Buffalo moving forward. There were major concerns losing linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, and what it would mean for Milano’s production. Losing Edmunds actually allowed the Bills’ linebacker core to improve, which would have been crazy to think back in August when the starting MIKE hasn’t been decided — and the eventual starter (Terrel Bernard) hasn’t even taken a snap in preseason due to a hamstring injury. Losing Milano was a massive blow since he’s one of the team’s best players overall. There were of course growing pains, yet the most unlikely of candidates (Tyrel Dodson) eventually figured it out, while the player drafted and who was Milano’s immediate backup (Doran Williams) proved himself not yet ready for primetime.

The team’s losses at cornerback have been mitigated by several factors, which includes a lot of prior experience and the nature of playing zone as base defense. There are still issues within the group against physically opposing receivers, but Douglas has helped level the playing field in that regard.

The injury to Dawson Knox proved favorable for Dalton Kincaid. From Weeks 7 through 11 (five games), Kincaid caught 31 passes (on 38 targets) for 281 yards and those two scores as the featured tight end in an almost-exclusive 11-personnel body of work.

I believe the Bills’ special teams unit has been affected most by injuries, with many players having to move to bigger roles on defense, ceding ST snaps to those further down the bench. Too often this season, special teams has proven a detrimental third phase for the Buffalo Bills.

5. The Bills are favored by a whopping 14 points by DraftKings Sportsbook. How can the Patriots pull off another upset?

The idea of an upset of any team this season feels less like an upset and more like the nature of a league driven by parity. That said, a 4-11 Patriots team beating a 9-6 Bills team that many believe is far better than their actual record — its feels that would be quite the upset. A fair bit of that is due to the point of the season we’re at, with Buffalo fueled by playoff motivation and New England likely contemplating long-term ideas in their penultimate game of 2023. That’s not to throw shade the Patriots’ way — if any fan base understands what it’s like to be onto the offseason and out of playoff contention, it’s Bills Mafia (at least those who followed the team prior to the arrival of Josh Allen).

So how could the Patriots pull off the upset? Well, it depends on just how much motivation has seeped into their veins. The opportunity to play spoiler is mighty fuel, especially when the chance is a divisional foe who you already defeated this season. Whether this is or is not head coach Bill Belichick’s last game leading the Patriots into battle against the Bills, I’m certain he’s instilled in the team how much beating Buffalo means to him — and there’s little doubt the players are going to ball out for the Hall of Fame-bound head coach.

Always the copycat league, many NFL teams have begun playing a “double-mirror” look against proficient scrambling quarterbacks. Defenses will rush just three players in contain while deploying two players who give chase only when the quarterback breaks the pocket. I’d expect the Patriots to employ this tactic against Josh Allen in hopes of taking away his run threat. But they won’t be content just to make Allen one-dimensional, because Allen has proven capable of doing just as much damage when confined to the pocket.

Allen needs to continue his streak of intelligent play, mixing his risk-taking nature with the trust of his progressions and check-downs.

In recent weeks, Allen has proven adept at handing out a lethal dose of intelligent quarterback play — expertly complementing his gunslinger, risk-taking nature with a commitment to trusting reads and progressions to counter what defenses give him… even if that means a check down.

New England will need to force Josh Allen into an impatient brand of football that sees him lean too often on arm punts. Taking possessions away is key, especially if Buffalo’s intent on establishing a ground game that chews up massive amount of clock. But claiming footballs isn’t enough. Nor is settling for field goals. Touchdowns matter huge against the Bills still, and gaining an unexpected six off a turnover (or more) could make for an interesting and uncomfortable game at Highmark Stadium.

Having already mentioned the idea of motivation, it’s likely to be one of the game’s biggest deciding factors. It’s just a matter of which team has more of it on tap this Sunday.