The St. Louis Cardinals appeared to have accepted the possibility that Nolan Arenado would start as the team’s third baseman in 2025 after an excruciatingly frigid offseason. When you’re trying to get younger and more financially flexible while creating opportunities for guys you’d want to have a closer look at, that’s definitely not a terrible thing. You know, all the reasons why the team was so determined to trade him in the first place.
Arenado invoked his whole no-trade clause to significantly reduce his possible landing destinations, and then proceeded to reject a possible move to one of the clubs on that list nevertheless, thus that trade never happened all winter long, despite John Mozeliak’s very public attempts. Arenado was upset at being cast as the villain of St. Louis’ sudden reconstruction, Mozeliak was annoyed by his star’s alleged lack of adaptability, and everyone appeared to be content to wait out the trade deadline at the very least.
Then, suddenly, everything was different. When asked about his future, Arenado made all the correct statements about how committed he was to making St. Louis the best team it could be in 2025, but it turns out that he wasn’t actually anticipating another arduous season. Arenado has since changed his mind about a trade to the Houston Astros, the franchise he blasted back in December, according to a story published on MLB.com on Saturday. Mozeliak must be prepared to rip his hair out in private because of all of this.
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John Mozeliak asserts final triumph over Nolan Arenado in their standoff.
To defend himself, Arenado was entitled to the entire no-trade provision and is still perfectly within his rights to apply it. And he gave the Astros his initial approval as a trade destination before the team lost Alex Bregman and Justin Verlander in free agency and sold Kyle Tucker, leaving him little time to change his mind about whether he still felt they were a good match.
However, this about-face is only the most recent illustration of the third baseman’s astounding lack of forethought throughout this entire situation. MLB.com reports that Arenado is now reevaluating Houston, pointing to the team’s acquisition of Christian Walker to start at first base, “a move which hadn’t been made when Arenado vetoed the trade and shows the Astros’ plan to push forward as contenders.”
which is sufficiently accurate, but is it really that compelling? In a highly winnable AL in December, the Astros were a solid but flawed club, and they still are. Arenado’s circumstances are the only thing that has truly altered. It appears that Arenado made a mistake in this case by assuming that either one of the major teams in Southern California (the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres) or one of the Northeast’s major teams (the New York Yankees, New York Mets, and Boston Red Sox) would be eager to sign him. He failed to consider the potential consequences if that didn’t turn out to be the case.
However, Arenado isn’t the same player he once was, and it was never likely that one of his favorite places would be a good match. The Padres and Yankees lack the funds, the Dodgers and Mets have third basemen, and the Red Sox have always had their eye on Alex Bregman. Houston was the only realistic challenger with the resources and the flexibility to make this work, and Arenado is only now discovering what Mozeliak understood all along. Fortunately for St. Louis, there is still time.
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