Since the Southeast Division was established in 2005, the Miami Heat have dominated, winning the title 12 times and setting the record. The Charlotte Hornets have yet to claim a division title, while the Washington Wizards managed one in the 2017 season, the Atlanta Hawks have two, and the Orlando Magic have won the division five times.
Last year, the Magic ended the Heat’s reign as division champions. With a roster full of promising young talent and the addition of a seasoned sharpshooter this offseason, the Magic could potentially continue their dominance. The question remains whether the Heat will bounce back or if the Magic will continue to lead the division.
### 1. Heat’s Offensive Potential
The Heat’s offense has struggled in the past two seasons, ranking 25th and 21st in Offensive Rating. To avoid remaining mediocre, the Heat need to make changes, starting with their shot selection.
The Heat’s shot frequency data for the 2023-24 season, according to Cleaning The Glass, is as follows:
– **Rim Frequency**: 28.5% (25th in the league)
– **Short Midrange**: 27.1% (1st)
– **Long Midrange**: 8.5% (17th)
– **All Midrange**: 35.6% (1st)
– **Corner 3**: 11% (3rd)
– **Above Break 3**: 24.9% (22nd)
– **All 3**: 35.9% (15th)
The data highlights a major issue: the Heat’s heavy reliance on midrange shots and their low frequency of shots at the rim. Being the top team in midrange shooting is not advantageous when rim attacks are lacking. Teams that rely heavily on midrange shots, like the Phoenix Suns, Detroit Pistons, Chicago Bulls, and Los Angeles Clippers, have not achieved significant success.
Effective offenses mix up shot types and capitalize on rim attacks to create open 3-point opportunities. When top Heat players frequently settle for midrange jumpers, it limits offensive dynamism.
Increasing Tyler Herro’s three-point attempts could energize the offense. Herro is a strong shooter from all areas of the court, and focusing on three-pointers over midrange shots could enhance Miami’s offensive efficiency.
Jimmy Butler playing at near-playoff intensity during the regular season would also boost the offense. Additionally, Bam Adebayo showed potential in shooting threes, making 14 of 28 over the last 17 games of the regular season and looking comfortable with the shot during the Olympics. His ability to space the floor could significantly impact the Heat’s offense.
The Magic struggled offensively last year due to their lack of three-point shooting, ranking 27th in this area. Their acquisition of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a proven shooter, aims to address this weakness. Orlando’s high rim attack rate could be complemented by Caldwell-Pope’s shooting, potentially transforming their offense. For the Heat, it’s crucial that rising stars Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner do not make significant improvements, while Miami’s key players should step up their game.
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