For the first time in ten seasons, Leicester City is once again playing in the second division of English league football, but based on their strong start to the 2023–24 season, they won’t be staying there for very long.
Even though Leicester City was demoted in 2022–23 after nine straight seasons in the Premier League, Foxes supporters will be the first to concede that the eight years leading up to that point may have been the best in the club’s history.
Following their first top-flight league championship since their founding in 1884 and the fairytale Premier League title win in 2015–16, they won their first FA Cup trophy in 2020–21. Additionally, in 2016–17, they made it to the quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League, and in 2021–22, they advanced to the semifinals of the UEFA Europa Conference League.
Then 2022-23 happened. Financial backing that had previously been provided to bulk up the squad saw the handbrake pulled, while this was coupled with poor recruitment choices using the money that they were given to spend on players. It wasn’t something that happened overnight, of course – worries about financial fair play, as well as struggles following the Covid pandemic added to the issues of a club still scarred by the awful, unexpected death of owner Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha in a helicopter crash outside the King Power Stadium in October 2018.
Brendan Rodgers’ very decent four-year reign as head coach was ended in April 2023, and the club raised eyebrows in replacing him with Dean Smith. Smith – who led Norwich City to relegation in bottom place the season before – was unable to keep the club in the Premier League with just nine points from eight games in charge.
Enzo Maresca was plucked from his role as assistant to Pep Guardiola at Manchester City and tasked with getting Leicester City back to the Premier League. An exciting appointment, but not one without concerns from the fanbase. Maresca’s only previous managerial job was an ill-fated 14-game spell in charge of Parma in Serie B. In what was a similar task to that at Leicester, Maresca was given the job of getting a big side back into the top-flight with a squad packed with big names for that level. He failed to make a good start there and paid the price, lasting four months into the 2021-22 season before being sacked. The good news for Maresca and Leicester is that life in the Championship couldn’t have gone much better.
How Does Leicester’s Start Compare Historically?
Leicester’s start to life back in the Championship has been exceptional – only blemished by one blot on the copy book; a 1-0 home defeat to Hull City on 2 September despite controlling large periods of the match.
Only five teams in the history of the English second tier have collected more points after 11 games than this Leicester side (based on three points for a win) and just two of those were since the inception of the Premier League in 1992-93.
All 10 previous sides to have won 30+ points from their opening 11 games of a second-tier season in England have gone on to win promotion to the top flight, while Leicester’s current average of 2.73 points per game puts them on course to smash the current second-tier points record of 106 set by Reading in 2005-06.
Their plus-17 goal difference is also among the best seen at Championship level after 11 games. Since the inception of the Premier League in 1992, only five clubs have managed a goal difference of at least +17 after 11 games – all five of those went on to win the title: Newcastle in 1992-93 (+18), Sunderland in 1998-99 (+18), Fulham in 2000-01 (+25), Portsmouth in 2002-03 (+17) and QPR in 2010-11 (+21).
The last three seasons of Championship football have been slightly misleading when it comes to thinking how easy it can be to win promotion back to the Premier League the season after relegation. The last three title winners (Norwich in 2020-21, Fulham in 2021-22 and Burnley in 2022-23) all remained in the Championship for one season before winning promotion back as champions. Just 12 of the last 30 Championship seasons have seen a team relegated from the Premier League go on and win the title in the following second-tier campaign – something it looks like Leicester might do this season. For every successful bounce-back to the Premier League, there are two unsuccessful ones, on average.
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